This document is our annual report to the Secretary of State assessing the risks to electricity security of supply in Great Britain for the next five winters.
Our assessment is based on data from National Grid accompanied by our own analysis. It suggests that, without the new measures introduced, the risks to the security of our electricity supply over the next five winters would be broadly consistent with those in last year’s report. Margins are expected to fall over the next two winters as older power stations close, before improving in the later years of our analysis.
Unlike last year, we have new measures introduced by Ofgem, National Grid and the government. The New Balancing Services and a Capacity Market mean that the risk of disruption to customer supplies in the coming winters has reduced compared with our 2013 capacity report.