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Chart

Javascript is required to render chart Prepayment price cap and prices since January 2016 (GB).

Source: Energylinx (Until May 2017) & Energyhelpline (June 2017 onwards).

Information correct as of: August 2019

This chart compares trends in prices since 2016 for a dual fuel customer paying prepayment. It shows both the market cheapest tariffs and average standard variable tariffs (SVT) for this payment method. The values are calculated for a customer with typical energy use.

From February 2017 the prices shown in the chart, including the level of the prepayment price cap, are calculated using the latest TDCV values that entered into effect from 1st of October 2017 (see the methodology section for more details).

In practical terms, this means that the tariffs offered after February 2017 are likely to appear slightly lower than those before February 2017.  

Policy Areas:

  • Electricity - retail markets
  • Electricity - wholesale markets
  • Gas - retail markets
  • Gas - wholesale markets

Data Table

Prepayment price cap and prices since January 2016 (GB)
DateSVT - prepayment (market average)Cheapest tariff - prepayment (all suppliers)Prepayment price cap
28/12/2015 1,163.44 1,055.61
28/01/2016 1,163.18 1,055.61
28/02/2016 1,158.61 1,054.20
28/03/2016 1,138.39 1,051.22
28/04/2016 1,131.32 1,030.27
28/05/2016 1,131.32 1,017.61
28/06/2016 1,131.32 985.97
28/07/2016 1,130.22 985.97
28/08/2016 1,130.22 985.97
28/09/2016 1,130.22 985.97
28/10/2016 1,130.22 985.97
28/11/2016 1,122.72 985.97
28/12/2016 1,122.72 985.97
28/01/2017 1,115.77 985.97
28/02/2017 1,061.14 970.67
28/03/2017 1,059.99 970.67
28/04/2017 1,032.30 970.67 1,050.35
28/05/2017 1,032.30 979.27 1,050.35
28/06/2017 1,032.30 979.27 1,050.35
28/07/2017 1,032.69 979.27 1,050.35
28/08/2017 1,031.31 979.27 1,050.35
28/09/2017 1,034.46 979.27 1,050.35
28/10/2017 1,030.60 978.04 1,031.27
28/11/2017 1,030.60 978.04 1,031.27
28/12/2017 1,030.60 957.12 1,031.27
28/01/2018 1,030.72 960.06 1,031.27
28/02/2018 1,030.72 945.76 1,031.27
28/03/2018 1,030.85 945.76 1,031.27
28/04/2018 1,079.09 946.63 1,088.55
28/05/2018 1,086.20 946.63 1,088.55
28/06/2018 1,086.19 946.63 1,088.55
28/07/2018 1,086.08 946.63 1,088.55
28/08/2018 1,086.06 946.54 1,088.55
28/09/2018 1,086.06 983.86 1,088.55
28/10/2018 1,135.42 983.86 1,135.99
28/11/2018 1,135.42 983.86 1,135.99
28/12/2018 1,135.42 983.86 1,135.99
28/01/2019 1,135.23 1,016.48 1,135.99
28/02/2019 1,135.23 1,023.39 1,135.99
28/03/2019 1,135.23 1,023.39 1,135.99
28/04/2019 1,241.44 1,023.39 1,242.07
28/05/2019 1,241.44 1,052.46 1,242.07
28/06/2019 1,241.44 1,052.46 1,242.07
28/07/20191,241.521,052.46 1,242.07
28/08/20191,242.07

More information

At-a-glance summary

In April 2017, the prepayment price cap came into force, limiting the amount that suppliers can charge their prepayment customers. These customers tend to be unable to access the cheapest deals and are also more likely to be in vulnerable circumstances.

The cheapest prepayment tariffs available in the market have remained below the average SVT for a prepayment customer following the introduction of the prepayment price cap. This differential between the average SVT and the cheapest prepayment tariff has remained at £189 between June and July 2019.

On 1 April 2019, the level of the prepayment price cap increased from £1,136 to £1,242 for a dual fuel customer who uses a typical amount of energy. This increase was mainly due to higher wholesale energy costs and network costs.. For more information on the latest updates, see our chart Breakdown of the prepayment price cap.

Relevance and further information

This chart helps us track the differential between the average prepayment SVT and the market cheapest PPM tariff price a customer will pay if they use prepayment to pay their energy bills. Both prices are compared with the prepayment price cap that currently apply to all prepayment customers, excluding those on ‘interoperable’ smart meters.

Customers who get the Government’s Warm Home Discount (WHD) and are on a standard variable or default tariff were protected by a ‘safeguard tariff’ set at the level of the prepayment price cap until the end of 2018, after which they were transferred to the default tariff price cap. The default tariff price cap came into effect on 1 January 2019, limiting the amount that suppliers can charge customers on default tariffs.

The default tariff cap has different levels set to reflect how customers pay, where they live and the type of energy meter they have. When transferred, WHD customers will be placed on the cheaper default cap level set for direct debit payment methods – it won’t matter how they pay.

You can find further information on energy price caps here.

Methodology

  • We calculate the bill values associated with the different tariff types using a ‘typical medium domestic consumer’. As of October 2017, typical consumption values for a medium consumer are 12,000kWh/year for gas and 3,100kWh/year for electricity (profile class 1).  
  • All prices shown are for a dual fuel customer (i.e. where a customer takes gas and electricity from the same supplier).  
  • The market average SVTs are based on the prices of the 12 largest suppliers in the prepayment segment. We have weighted the SVT of each supplier using an estimate of their total share of all prepayment accounts (for prepayment). We update the weightings every six months in January and July to reflect customer numbers four months prior to publication. The time lag is due to data availability. For example, the average given for 28 January 2017 uses weights based on customer numbers at 31 October 2016, while the average for 28 December 2016 uses weights at 31 March 2016.  
  • An SVT refers to a supply contract which is for a period of an indefinite length, and which does not have a fixed-term period applying to any of the terms and conditions. It’s an energy supplier’s basic offer. If a customer does not choose a specific energy plan, for example after their fixed tariff ends, they will be moved onto an SVT until they have chosen a new one. A customer can also make an active choice to select an SVT. 
  • We exclude tariffs with limited availability – such as tariffs only available to new customers (also known as ‘acquisition’ tariffs) or tariffs restricted to certain regions - when calculating the market cheapest tariff. This is so we give a representative picture of tariffs generally available to all customers across GB. 
  • We include tariffs available with ‘white label’ suppliers in our calculation of the cheapest tariffs. White label suppliers are organisations without supply licences that partner with an active licensed supplier to offer gas and electricity using their own brand. 
  • The cheapest tariff shown on the chart includes any collective switching tariffs after the first quarter of 2016. 
  • In all cases, the prices shown are based on suppliers’ tariffs averaged across GB regions. The level of the prepayment price cap is based on the values published on our website, adjusted to reflect current typical domestic consumption values, and to include VAT.

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Chart

Javascript is required to render chart Gas prices: Day-ahead contracts – monthly average (GB).

Source: ICIS.

Information correct as of: September 2019

This chart shows ‘Day-ahead’ gas prices at the GB gas hub (the National Balancing Point) for delivery the following working day. The data is averaged by month rather than by day and covers Q4 2009 to Q1 2019. Further information on wholesale prices can be found in our State of the Energy Market 2018 report

The data comes from ICIS’s price assessment of over-the-counter trading through brokers. A full explanation of ICIS’s methodology is available on ICIS's website.

Policy Areas:

  • Gas - wholesale markets

Data Table

Gas prices: Day-ahead contracts – monthly average (GB)
Month beginningPrice
01/10/200925.18
01/11/200926.99
01/12/200931.42
01/01/201039.77
01/02/201035.78
01/03/201032.14
01/04/201032.79
01/05/201039.49
01/06/201042.15
01/07/201045.94
01/08/201042.61
01/09/201040.77
01/10/201046
01/11/201049.66
01/12/201062.26
01/01/201155.98
01/02/201153.74
01/03/201160.39
01/04/201157.23
01/05/201157.01
01/06/201158.25
01/07/201155.09
01/08/201154.06
01/09/201153.64
01/10/201156.05
01/11/201158.15
01/12/201156.04
01/01/201254.43
01/02/201265.41
01/03/201258.44
01/04/201259.94
01/05/201257.01
01/06/201255.15
01/07/201255.6
01/08/201254.53
01/09/201260.45
01/10/201264.35
01/11/201265.63
01/12/201265.5
01/01/201366.83
01/02/201368.88
01/03/201386.57
01/04/201369.98
01/05/201366.14
01/06/201360.47
01/07/201365.23
01/08/201364.65
01/09/201365.71
01/10/201365.08
01/11/201368.29
01/12/201369.35
01/01/201465.1
01/02/201458.86
01/03/201456.53
01/04/201449.89
01/05/201445.33
01/06/201439.5
01/07/201437.51
01/08/201440.61
01/09/201448.43
01/10/201450.42
01/11/201454.84
01/12/201453.62
01/01/201546.1
01/02/201550.47
01/03/201547.23
01/04/201546.86
01/05/201544.09
01/06/201543.37
01/07/201543.47
01/08/201539.69
01/09/201541.04
01/10/201539.56
01/11/201535.9
01/12/201534.03
01/01/201632.05
01/02/201629.66
01/03/201629.6
01/04/201629.44
01/05/201630.41
01/06/201634.2
01/07/201634.3
01/08/201630.36
01/09/201628.36
01/10/201642.83
01/11/201648.12
01/12/201646.53
01/01/201753.39
01/02/201751.01
01/03/201741.02
01/04/201739.73
01/05/201739.29
01/06/201734.84
01/07/201736.21
01/08/201742.57
01/09/201746.00
01/10/201745.40
01/11/201752.95
01/12/201758.29
01/01/201850.44
01/02/201858.96
01/03/201864.30
01/04/201850.94
01/05/201855.58
01/06/201854.97
01/07/201857.93
01/08/201862.83
01/09/201873.72
01/10/201866.53
01/11/201864.37
01/12/201863.74
01/01/201957.71
01/02/201947.09
01/03/201939.31
01/04/201934.98
01/05/201931.43
01/06/201927.96

More information

Gas prices (Day-ahead contracts): At-a-glance summary

Day-ahead gas prices have been on a broadly upward trend from mid-Summer 2017. However, since October 2018 prices have followed a downward trend. While changes in commodity prices have influenced gas prices upwards until October 2018, mild weather and healthy supply margins have influenced gas prices downwards in recent months.

Relevance and further information

Day-ahead prices are a good indicator of the short-term price of gas in GB. However, Day-ahead prices are just one measure of the price of gas. Suppliers often buy most of their gas months or even years in advance of when it will be delivered. Therefore, Day-ahead prices may not necessarily reflect the price that suppliers will have paid for their gas.

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Chart

Javascript is required to render chart Gas demand and supply source by month (GB).

Source: National Grid.

Information correct as of: July 2019

This chart shows monthly totals of gas supplies for the GB National Transmission System, broken down by the key different sources of supply. It also shows exports and storage injections.

Policy Areas:

  • Gas - wholesale markets

Data Table

Gas demand and supply source by month (GB)
Month beginningUKCSNorwayLNGIUKBBLStorageMoffatIUKStorage
01/10/20093.852.321.3400.230.12-0.51-0.6-0.32
01/11/20093.652.991.270.110.870.16-0.54-0.14-0.22
01/12/20094.083.351.670.481.050.87-0.630-0.21
01/01/20104.023.871.540.391.031.71-0.67-0.04-0.24
01/02/20103.683.551.330.130.881.19-0.59-0.07-0.13
01/03/20104.013.921.320.010.920.64-0.62-0.26-0.45
01/04/20103.772.791.7200.720.18-0.52-0.87-0.92
01/05/20103.822.811.5900.520.19-0.55-1.26-0.9
01/06/20103.053.050.9200.440.09-0.55-1.42-0.93
01/07/20103.22.090.9500.470.17-0.5-1.31-0.78
01/08/20102.951.841.3900.410.13-0.49-1.04-0.66
01/09/20103.111.421.4700.410.14-0.5-0.67-0.45
01/10/20103.542.911.6500.560.28-0.52-1.52-0.43
01/11/20103.463.261.790.090.890.71-0.62-0.34-0.34
01/12/20103.543.782.080.631.031.48-0.70-0.24
01/01/20113.593.072.430.310.960.81-0.65-0.01-0.36
01/02/20113.22.671.990.020.540.46-0.51-0.1-0.26
01/03/20113.42.852.460.040.210.37-0.57-0.12-0.69
01/04/20113.261.532.6800.490.14-0.52-1.24-1.07
01/05/20112.791.462.4800.50.18-0.5-1.12-0.77
01/06/20112.830.932.0200.370.09-0.48-0.88-0.61
01/07/20112.61.531.8600.360.06-0.5-1.02-0.7
01/08/20111.842.171.8100.310.21-0.51-1.34-0.35
01/09/20112.271.711.5800.390.06-0.47-0.67-0.43
01/10/201132.341.7300.370.14-0.49-1.39-0.25
01/11/20113.273.071.1400.520.19-0.48-1.05-0.23
01/12/20113.223.251.520.010.790.59-0.57-0.38-0.32
01/01/20123.023.641.10.020.860.86-0.56-0.18-0.3
01/02/20122.813.421.120.010.841.36-0.48-0.31-0.33
01/03/20123.162.981.0900.790.13-0.5-0.43-0.95
01/04/20122.562.161.6800.650.45-0.47-0.59-0.31
01/05/20122.382.281.340.010.480.24-0.49-0.53-0.72
01/06/20122.291.891.0200.280.11-0.45-0.35-0.86
01/07/20122.12.410.6500.320.12-0.43-0.96-0.72
01/08/20122.031.341.6300.190.1-0.46-1.09-0.61
01/09/20122.021.320.610.010.170.33-0.44-0.31-0.16
01/10/20122.52.880.370.310.560.2-0.5-0.18-0.52
01/11/20122.393.260.750.540.70.35-0.51-0.07-0.25
01/12/20122.353.781.120.420.920.81-0.53-0.13-0.45
01/01/20132.63.730.580.420.971.51-0.53-0.17-0.3
01/02/20132.283.390.350.510.941.81-0.49-0.06-0.26
01/03/20132.473.620.31.680.951.08-0.58-0.02-0.49
01/04/20132.53.231.120.150.650.34-0.51-0.3-0.93
01/05/20132.621.3400.490.33-0.49-0.5-0.99
01/06/20132.272.141.4400.270.14-0.44-0.62-1.34
01/07/20131.871.90.700.220.25-0.42-0.6-0.89
01/08/20131.651.630.50.020.270.21-0.44-0.19-0.83
01/09/20131.881.90.3600.240.26-0.42-0.24-0.36
01/10/20132.22.460.60.010.380.19-0.46-0.18-0.6
01/11/20132.293.20.970.260.910.33-0.52-0.02-0.22
01/12/20132.633.570.270.250.970.61-0.47-0.01-0.29
01/01/20142.73.530.240.191.10.9-0.52-0.02-0.15
01/02/20142.483.180.270.030.90.86-0.45-0.02-0.14
01/03/20142.622.820.420.070.950.54-0.49-0.05-0.48
01/04/20142.51.821.0600.630.22-0.41-0.49-0.69
01/05/20142.541.631.4300.340.29-0.51-0.79-0.72
01/06/20142.441.311.2400.370.18-0.49-0.49-0.97
01/07/20142.331.391.3500.220.19-0.45-0.84-0.6
01/08/20142.031.261.2800.190.2-0.46-0.51-0.38
01/09/20141.881.690.7600.430.19-0.47-0.65-0.24
01/10/20142.322.910.3300.390.31-0.45-0.5-0.46
01/11/20142.353.060.880.030.460.42-0.48-0.07-0.23
01/12/20142.463.640.910.040.740.75-0.5-0.04-0.22
01/01/20152.493.310.940.070.881.48-0.53-0.17-0.12
01/02/20152.153.390.760.10.661.47-0.5-0.05-0.16
01/03/20152.483.311.130.020.570.63-0.48-0.34-0.16
01/04/20152.642.280.8100.050.41-0.48-0.67-0.29
01/05/20152.791.941.3100.030.11-0.46-0.83-0.61
01/06/20152.491.670.8100.230.11-0.46-0.4-0.99
01/07/20152.182.140.8800.010.16-0.46-0.87-0.82
01/08/20152.222.281.25000.09-0.47-1.2-1.07
01/09/20152.242.271.0900.010.21-0.46-1.06-0.18
01/10/20152.5331.3900.010.18-0.52-0.86-0.56
01/11/20152.653.251.2800.30.32-0.46-0.76-0.29
01/12/20152.813.260.7600.60.27-0.46-0.52-0.27
01/01/20162.873.40.780.020.721.48-0.39-0.23-0.12
01/02/20162.443.21.20.030.611.19-0.41-0.13-0.15
01/03/20162.443.881.020.040.780.69-0.39-0.19-0.2
01/04/20162.453.170.420.001.040.48-0.35-0.47-0.13
01/05/20162.332.690.020.001.250.13-0.28-0.90-0.58
01/06/20161.992.570.030.030.400.15-0.24-0.04-0.84
01/07/20162.382.340.930.000.000.10-0.17-1.41-0.56
01/08/20161.802.160.610.000.010.29-0.23-0.88-0.27
01/09/20161.922.411.120.000.020.18-0.27-1.51-0.25
01/10/20162.403.880.180.000.370.21-0.24-0.45-0.27
01/11/20162.444.360.290.570.940.33-0.34-0.06-0.16
01/12/20162.604.600.260.820.470.50-0.290.00-0.4
01/01/20172.854.930.250.690.501.12-0.310.00-0.24
01/02/20172.424.260.190.500.330.66-0.24-0.02-0.43
01/03/20172.654.110.760.010.050.46-0.27-0.31-0.32
01/04/20172.623.190.950.000.000.62-0.26-1.22-0.24
01/05/20172.652.580.710.000.010.27-0.19-1.29-0.19
01/06/20172.492.020.280.000.000.21-0.21-0.76-0.50
01/07/20172.322.910.530.000.000.16-0.24-1.82-0.37
01/08/20171.793.030.460.000.000.19-0.24-1.52-0.32
01/09/20172.062.780.330.000.000.45-0.41-0.88-0.19
01/10/20172.633.460.260.000.040.49-0.33-0.66-0.59
01/11/20172.694.380.320.170.300.46-0.32-0.04-0.18
01/12/20171.894.570.251.480.700.89-0.290.00-0.53
01/01/20182.564.640.191.201.000.51-0.290.00-0.38
01/02/20182.384.170.331.210.530.84-0.31-0.02-0.21
01/03/20182.404.440.470.750.540.97-0.340.00-0.38
01/04/20182.493.400.480.050.060.41-0.29-0.13-0.29
01/05/20182.422.500.220.000.000.43-0.28-0.69-0.27
01/06/20182.361.720.160.000.010.27-0.25-0.26-0.44
01/07/20182.243.050.170.000.000.27-0.27-1.35-0.48
01/08/20181.942.810.170.000.000.29-0.24-1.09-0.41
01/09/20182.102.230.150.000.020.30-0.25-0.66-0.12
01/10/20182.253.420.640.010.070.26-0.32-0.01-0.49
01/11/20182.303.661.330.000.140.34-0.37-0.01-0.24
01/12/20182.373.991.390.050.440.49-0.360.00-0.29
01/01/20192.534.321.560.241.000.73-0.420.00-0.22
01/02/20192.233.351.320.040.320.58-0.330.00-0.13
01/03/20192.493.121.580.000.000.57-0.40-0.01-0.18

More information

Gas demand and supply source: At-a-glance summary

In recent years, gas demand has fallen across all consumers as boilers have become more efficient and demand for gas from power stations has fallen.

About 70% of our gas comes from the UK continental shelf and Norway, with the remainder coming from continental Europe and global LNG.

Relevance and further information

The gas supply mix is a useful indicator of the diversity and origin of the gas supplied in GB. Having diverse sources of supply suggests greater resilience for GB gas supply.

Methodology

Positive values represent supplies to the GB system. This includes domestic production from the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), imports at liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, withdrawals from storage and imports via pipelines and interconnectors.

Negative values represent supplies from the GB system (excluding end-consumer demand). This includes injections to storage and exports via interconnectors. GB has three interconnectors linking us with Belgium (IUK), the Netherlands (BBL) and Ireland and Northern Ireland (Moffat).

For simplicity, we have assumed gas entering at the St. Fergus terminal to be from the UKCS for the Mobil sub-terminal, and from Norway for the Shell and Total sub-terminals. This is likely to marginally overstate gas flows from Norway.

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Chart

Source: ICIS data & Ofgem calculations.

Information correct as of: July 2019

This chart shows the monthly average of volatility for GB gas, electricity baseload and electricity peakload prices based on Day-ahead contracts.

Policy Areas:

  • Electricity - wholesale markets
  • Gas - wholesale markets

Data Table

Price volatility of gas and electricity by month: Day-ahead contracts (GB)
Month beginningElectricity (baseload)Electricity (peakload)Gas
01/01/200399%643%332%
01/02/2003102%635%313%
01/03/200356%232%158%
01/04/200338%135%128%
01/05/200340%177%141%
01/06/200347%216%192%
01/07/2003116%531%111%
01/08/2003159%687%141%
01/09/200384%424%210%
01/10/200356%323%194%
01/11/200360%334%135%
01/12/200377%484%125%
01/01/200490%407%256%
01/02/200494%452%444%
01/03/200439%127%113%
01/04/200428%118%105%
01/05/200430%162%115%
01/06/200442%228%67%
01/07/200435%169%58%
01/08/200418%105%70%
01/09/200418%125%100%
01/10/200443%144%126%
01/11/200456%238%133%
01/12/200442%211%119%
01/01/200546%231%131%
01/02/200537%167%126%
01/03/200581%319%416%
01/04/200532%153%160%
01/05/200517%72%93%
01/06/200526%124%135%
01/07/200546%279%126%
01/08/200517%106%92%
01/09/200529%146%89%
01/10/200533%176%103%
01/11/200550%194%226%
01/12/200579%338%294%
01/01/200670%282%209%
01/02/200659%205%205%
01/03/2006114%436%389%
01/04/200681%331%291%
01/05/200623%94%121%
01/06/200629%145%219%
01/07/200665%302%182%
01/08/200690%444%90%
01/09/200638%190%105%
01/10/200648%227%567%
01/11/200672%297%217%
01/12/200687%328%183%
01/01/200763%294%154%
01/02/200741%194%120%
01/03/200730%154%140%
01/04/200733%167%86%
01/05/200742%219%106%
01/06/200753%290%84%
01/07/200740%181%107%
01/08/200733%129%95%
01/09/200744%172%127%
01/10/200775%248%122%
01/11/200792%413%113%
01/12/200777%363%91%
01/01/200861%266%92%
01/02/200820%102%50%
01/03/200815%70%49%
01/04/200831%156%41%
01/05/200824%111%78%
01/06/200843%234%48%
01/07/200843%203%75%
01/08/200833%160%212%
01/09/200834%149%146%
01/10/200841%156%105%
01/11/200848%212%144%
01/12/200860%277%98%
01/01/200960%275%110%
01/02/200935%151%100%
01/03/200923%98%87%
01/04/200916%66%96%
01/05/200928%102%71%
01/06/200931%109%82%
01/07/200931%112%68%
01/08/200918%65%81%
01/09/200928%111%203%
01/10/200921%92%266%
01/11/200918%93%106%
01/12/200922%89%66%
01/01/201031%127%141%
01/02/201020%50%99%
01/03/201010%42%60%
01/04/201013%51%75%
01/05/201020%77%113%
01/06/201016%60%73%
01/07/201014%59%55%
01/08/201011%52%49%
01/09/20108%34%72%
01/10/201013%47%83%
01/11/201014%56%42%
01/12/201051%239%49%
01/01/201123%112%40%
01/02/20118%30%38%
01/03/201112%37%31%
01/04/201113%40%53%
01/05/20116%26%55%
01/06/20116%26%22%
01/07/20116%31%22%
01/08/20118%32%24%
01/09/201112%48%66%
01/10/201113%65%86%
01/11/201114%51%48%
01/12/20119%44%34%
01/01/201212%43%36%
01/02/201225%108%144%
01/03/201215%70%70%
01/04/201214%50%49%
01/05/201211%42%29%
01/06/201211%54%29%
01/07/201210%39%28%
01/08/20128%34%29%
01/09/201210%34%30%
01/10/201212%43%25%
01/11/201221%87%24%
01/12/201220%70%20%
01/01/201320%80%32%
01/02/201320%79%32%
01/03/201337%125%87%
01/04/201333%119%105%
01/05/201314%42%25%
01/06/201313%44%35%
01/07/201313%45%46%
01/08/201311%29%18%
01/09/201313%35%15%
01/10/201314%51%21%
01/11/201320%75%33%
01/12/201321%73%20%
01/01/201421%77%17%
01/02/201416%60%19%
01/03/201419%53%35%
01/04/201415%47%33%
01/05/201412%41%30%
01/06/201410%35%42%
01/07/201412%53%43%
01/08/201412%53%47%
01/09/201418%74%51%
01/10/201423%89%41%
01/11/201442%187%50%
01/12/201426%108%26%
01/01/201528%90%36%
01/02/201524%97%39%
01/03/201518%74%38%
01/04/201517%51%27%
01/05/201517%48%28%
01/06/201517%50%28%
01/07/201514%47%22%
01/08/201512%37%31%
01/09/201511%41%28%
01/10/201511%43%24%
01/11/201517%64%36%
01/12/201523%71%34%
01/01/201629%115%39%
01/02/201630%149%39%
01/03/201633%170%25%
01/04/201628%121%27%
01/05/201624%117%58%
01/06/201621%96%39%
01/07/201624%104%32%
01/08/201626%126%43%
01/09/2016151%495%131%
01/10/2016182%663%87%
01/11/2016141%638%43%
01/12/201685%425%41%
01/01/201730%167%54%
01/02/201718%89%52%
01/03/201717%79%30%
01/04/201717%69%25%
01/05/201723%126%35%
01/06/201742%189%79%
01/07/201782%371%77%
01/08/201732%130%42%
01/09/201722%100%30%
01/10/201726%94%64%
01/11/201719%94%28%
01/12/201721%82%52%
01/01/201821%81%42%
01/02/201816%76%47%
01/03/201867%248%478%
01/04/201829%128%83%
01/05/201818%95%33%
01/06/201817%66%44%
01/07/201817%71%36%
01/08/201810%54%24%
01/09/201813%63%33%
01/10/201818%58%50%
01/11/201819%81%49%
01/12/201829%134%43%
01/01/201923%104%54%
01/02/201927%115%34%
01/03/201913%54%29%

More information

Price volatility of gas and electricity (Day-ahead contracts): At-a-glance summary

The volatility of day-ahead gas and power prices has been generally decreasing in recent years. Volatility for both gas and power remained low over the course of 2015 and the first half of 2016, but increased during winter 2016/17.

A sharp increase in the average of volatility for GB gas occured in March 2018, with record high gas prices due to both high demand and supply issues: gas demand reached the highest level in seven years and there was a series of unplanned outages across GB supply infrastructure that increased the gas price further. Since May 2018 volatility for both gas and electricity has remained low and stable, hovering between 24% to 50% for gas, and 10% and 29% for electricity.

Relevance and further information

Price volatility is an important market indicator for a range of reasons. For example:

  • Companies with capacity that can flexibly increase or decrease their supply of gas or electricity can profit from high volatility by increasing output when prices are high and decreasing output when prices are low. Such companies include gas storage facilities or conventional coal and gas-fired power stations.
  • High levels of volatility can challenge smaller companies where they are less able to access credit and collateral.

Methodology

  • The monthly calculation takes the logarithmical differences of daily average prices across two consecutive trading days. These are used to calculate the relative standard deviation on a rolling monthly basis (21 trading days).
  • To show the data in annual terms, the value obtained is multiplied by the square root of the total number of trading days in a year (252 trading days).
  • Volatility values are usually expressed as a percentage, so the annual value is finally multiplied by 100.
  • All volatility values for a given month are then averaged together to get a single monthly data point.
close

Chart

Source: Ofgem calculations using data from ICIS .

Information correct as of: July 2019

The chart shows summer-winter spreads for the GB gas market. The summer-winter spread is the difference between the gas price in summer compared to the following winter price.

Policy Areas:

  • Gas - wholesale markets

Data Table

Gas summer-winter spreads at the National Balancing Point (GB)
Month beginning2005-062006-072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-21
01/04/200412.111.17
01/05/200412.210.72
01/06/200412.2910.52
01/07/200413.5110.6
01/08/200414.2111.04
01/09/200415.7412.21
01/10/200419.5612.41
01/11/200418.2511.53
01/12/200417.5412.44
01/01/200520.5612.54
01/02/200522.5612.95
01/03/200527.3114.99
01/04/200518.9511.43
01/05/200522.9315.94
01/06/200528.6221.61
01/07/200535.123.67
01/08/200529.4217.95
01/09/200527.6618.64
01/10/200525.0719
01/11/200531.2222.18
01/12/200538.3328.45
01/01/200642.5731.41
01/02/200636.127.45
01/03/200641.1828.4
01/04/200647.4431.2726.7
01/05/200630.9325.98
01/06/200629.0924.08
01/07/200625.4419.99
01/08/200623.7316.36
01/09/200622.4314.78
01/10/200622.0314.88
01/11/200619.5714.57
01/12/200621.5515.3
01/01/200720.8213.69
01/02/200722.4213.01
01/03/200728.7416.04
01/04/200731.211714.4
01/05/200718.6715.22
01/06/200718.314.94
01/07/200716.9114.41
01/08/200715.1812.79
01/09/200714.3612.09
01/10/200713.6810.88
01/11/200713.8910.8
01/12/200714.8611.35
01/01/200816.7612.64
01/02/200817.5814.17
01/03/200817.9315.77
01/04/200815.5912.75
01/05/200815.2413.58
01/06/200817.3712.87
01/07/200819.7713.73
01/08/200821.5315.88
01/09/200820.5116.81
01/10/200818.616.78
01/11/200818.5516.11
01/12/200817.8915.09
01/01/200918.0715.54
01/02/200920.1616.29
01/03/200924.2218.09
01/04/200921.1917.21
01/05/200920.117
01/06/200919.6416.05
01/07/200919.4815.8
01/08/200921.2316.43
01/09/200918.814.21
01/10/200919.8315.25
01/11/200918.5114.93
01/12/200919.2413.75
01/01/201017.6214.09
01/02/201015.1213.86
01/03/201013.0312.39
01/04/201010.8712.2112.02
01/05/201012.3411.71
01/06/201012.0611.54
01/07/201010.910.77
01/08/201010.689.6
01/09/201010.839.61
01/10/201010.739.93
01/11/201010.128.99
01/12/20108.928.52
01/01/20118.737.8
01/02/20119.677.76
01/03/201111.28.38
01/04/20119.279.38
01/05/20119.349.58
01/06/20119.889.71
01/07/201111.3310.23
01/08/201111.9110.14
01/09/201111.349.65
01/10/2011129.59
01/11/201113.4810.33
01/12/201114.5411.33
01/01/201215.7311.98
01/02/201216.2512.72
01/03/201216.6913.18
01/04/201216.112.7311.46
01/05/201212.3511.12
01/06/201211.2710.17
01/07/201210.839.82
01/08/201211.689.78
01/09/201211.199.56
01/10/201210.549.51
01/11/20129.949.72
01/12/201210.169.78
01/01/201310.039.51
01/02/20138.629.02
01/03/20137.969.15
01/04/20137.288.588.25
01/05/20138.347.81
01/06/20138.297.93
01/07/20137.918.14
01/08/20137.548.01
01/09/20137.628.06
01/10/20137.17.88
01/11/20137.087.65
01/12/20137.777.93
01/01/20148.247.99
01/02/20149.898.38
01/03/201411.199.18
01/04/20149.538.6
01/05/20149.918.69
01/06/201410.188.9
01/07/201410.848.95
01/08/201410.259.63
01/09/201410.419.37
01/10/201410.099.01
01/11/20149.278.65
01/12/20148.318.35
01/01/20157.98.61
01/02/20158.028.72
01/03/20157.757.88
01/04/20157.677.06
01/05/20157.97.25
01/06/20157.897.16
01/07/20157.266.84
01/08/20156.816.02
01/09/20156.465.84
01/10/20156.65.85
01/11/20154.794.43
01/12/20155.564.78
01/01/20165.684.84
01/02/20167.035.3
01/03/20167.15.56
01/04/20166.125.51
01/05/20165.644.91
01/06/20165.615.07
01/07/20166.535.58
01/08/20166.445.69
01/09/20166.235.73
01/10/20166.475.84
01/11/20166.135.79
01/12/20166.935.95
01/01/20176.335.88
01/02/20176.896.68
01/03/20177.887.95
01/04/20178.077.73
01/05/20177.867.7
01/06/20178.497.97
01/07/20179.328.87
01/08/20179.39.2
01/09/20179.349.05
01/10/20179.229.2
01/11/20179.259.44
01/12/20179.9810.67
01/01/201810.6810.66
01/02/20189.8110.49
01/03/20189.6210.78
01/04/201810.7410.8
01/05/201810.610.93
01/06/20189.8510.61
01/07/20189.910.64
01/08/20189.5410.62
01/09/20189.1310.39
01/10/20189.8410.75
01/11/20189.9610.23
01/12/20189.819.86
01/01/201911.310.2
01/02/201914.810.8
01/03/201916.011.4

More information

Gas summer-winter spreads: At-a-glance summary

Summer-winter spreads have fallen significantly over the past decade and continue to remain low. The spreads for 2019-20 and 2020-21 are still low by historical standards.These lower spreads are at least partly because of increased imports from other capacity. Much of our new import capacity is able to operate flexibly. It can often be a substitute for storage in being able to respond  dynamically to variations in price.

Relevance and further information

The summer-winter spread is an important indicator of trends in the profitability of long-range or seasonal gas storage. This is because gas storage facilities generally make money by injecting gas when the price is low (i.e. in summer) and withdrawing it when the price is high (i.e. in winter).

Methodology

The summer-winter spread is calculated by subtracting the average contract price of quarters two and three from the contract price of the following quarter one in a given year.

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Chart

Javascript is required to render chart Gas trading volumes and monthly churn ratio by platform (GB).

Source: ICE, LEBA, ICE Endex & National Grid.

Information correct as of: July 2019

This chart shows the total monthly volumes of gas traded in GB across different trading platforms. The churn ratio is also shown.

Policy Areas:

  • Gas - wholesale markets

Data Table

Gas trading volumes and monthly churn ratio by platform (GB)
MonthChurnICEICE EndexOTC
01/01/20111229.841.15103.61
01/02/20111838.670.96123.64
01/03/20112257.190.85145.68
01/04/20111533.281.1785.32
01/05/20111527.940.9981.35
01/06/20112133.360.7698
01/07/20112037.160.8889.15
01/08/20112860.590.95115.88
01/09/20112647.710.93108.36
01/10/20111847.31.4889.39
01/11/20112049.611.34109.81
01/12/20111131.571.3366.34
01/01/20122159.231.16137.42
01/02/20122477.710.82151.69
01/03/20122255.691.07126.35
01/04/20121742.241.0286.1
01/05/20122246.871.3199.46
01/06/201220371.0676.28
01/07/20122241.060.9583.71
01/08/20122441.181.1382.96
01/09/20122639.680.9573.82
01/10/20122461.681.2497.1
01/11/20121756.221.0279.67
01/12/20121031.161.0362.54
01/01/20131548.541.0795.63
01/02/20131754.061.01106
01/03/20131656.021.5298.72
01/04/20131642.631.1180.81
01/05/20131841.131.0980.74
01/06/20132141.251.2185.54
01/07/20131724.71.0661.22
01/08/20132330.721.167.71
01/09/20132738.491.1484.27
01/10/20132236.171.0791.93
01/11/20131646.461.0582.78
01/12/20131139.181.1153.87
01/01/20142382.450.91112.19
01/02/20142575.120.99112.6
01/03/20142689.271.03110.45
01/04/20142777.361.1588.62
01/05/20142160.251.1171.52
01/06/20142772.430.9475.66
01/07/20143082.40.9579.12
01/08/20142567.170.9757.72
01/09/20143074.080.9574.03
01/10/20142570.421.1187.23
01/11/20142067.030.9975.88
01/12/20141560.050.9565.45
01/01/201522103.240.94101.41
01/02/201525117.190.9395.02
01/03/201527112.120.92105.54
01/04/20152159.320.8669.28
01/05/20152058.520.8862.58
01/06/20152767.580.7677.56
01/07/20152675.080.764.32
01/08/20152266.240.8760.95
01/09/20152467.540.7670.3
01/10/20152381.380.7679.09
01/11/201523103.660.977.38
01/12/20151664.330.7958.75
01/01/201623117.840.8792.09
01/02/201623107.750.7691.49
01/03/20161985.470.9782.96
01/04/20162389.580.9381.5
01/05/20162679.050.8887.64
01/06/20163488.150.7985.07
01/07/20162257.530.7164.94
01/08/20162560.50.7259.59
01/09/20162565.740.7276.25
01/10/20161857.30.7165.63
01/11/20161566.410.6562.95
01/12/20161049.670.8341.37
01/01/20171584.620.865.89
01/02/20172089.560.6773.52
01/03/20172189.130.774.93
01/04/20171872.010.7956.95
01/05/20172485.410.7163.68
01/06/20173182.90.7570.14
01/07/20172695.880.6553.98
01/08/201733119.220.5961.29
01/09/201731113.610.6762.05
01/10/20172186.050.7958.45
01/11/20172094.410.6971.19
01/12/20171265.960.8353.32
01/01/20181578.980.7770.5
01/02/20181577.120.6760.29
01/03/20181472.90.8561.84
01/04/20181977.970.7354.18
01/05/201831107.480.7566.81
01/06/20183280.970.5762.6
01/07/20181856.720.644.74
01/08/20182481.980.6144.53
01/09/20183088.230.6454.51
01/10/20182178.610.757.15
01/11/20181772.970.6555.61
01/12/2018945.230.8630.24
01/01/20191271.170.6950.74
01/02/20191457.790.7148.86
01/03/20191881.690.7257.25

More information

Gas trading volumes and churn ratio: At-a-glance summary

Churn in the GB gas market at the National Balancing Point (NBP) remains high and over the past year has hovered between 9 and 32. During Q1 2019 churn has hovered between 12 and 18. This is indicative of a highly liquid market. There is also a diverse range of products and platforms available for those looking to trade at the NBP. This includes a wide range of forward and spot contracts with significant trading volumes throughout. Since January 2014, the location of NBP trading has shifted from being dominated by over-the-counter (OTC) trading to a more even spread between OTC and exchange based trading.

Relevance and further information

Churn is one metric used to assess market liquidity. It shows how often a unit of gas is traded before it is delivered to end consumers. 

Liquidity is an important feature of mature markets, often reflecting a large number of buyers and sellers. Liquid markets also facilitate new entry by making it easier to buy and sell gas at a good price. For example, in a liquid market a new supplier can more easily enter the market and buy the gas they need to cover their consumers’ demand whilst also having confidence in the price they are paying for that gas. 

Methodology

Churn ratios are calculated by dividing the total gas volumes traded by the total amount of gas delivered.

Trading data is based on total volumes from over-the-counter trading (from the LEBA trade association) and the major gas exchanges (ICE and ICE Endex). 

Physical delivery data is sourced from National Grid.

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Chart

Javascript is required to render chart Gas bid-offer spreads by contract type (GB).

Source: Ofgem calculations using data from ICIS.

Information correct as of: July 2019

The chart shows bid-offer spreads across a range of contracts for gas delivered on the GB gas hub (the National Balancing Point) for different periods of time in the future. Figures are presented as monthly averages of daily spreads.

Policy Areas:

  • Gas - wholesale markets

Data Table

Gas bid-offer spreads by contract type (GB)
Month beginningDay-aheadFront MonthFront QuarterFront SeasonSecond SeasonThird SeasonFourth Season
01/01/20060.15%0.23%0.40%
01/02/20060.36%0.27%0.34%
01/03/20060.21%0.25%0.28%
01/04/20060.16%0.19%0.27%
01/05/20060.26%0.25%0.24%0.27%0.34%0.50%0.40%
01/06/20060.66%0.25%0.28%0.28%0.24%0.38%0.24%
01/07/20060.15%0.26%0.18%0.36%0.23%0.34%0.25%
01/08/20060.20%0.27%0.18%0.40%0.33%0.39%0.28%
01/09/20060.37%0.26%0.20%0.40%0.26%0.42%0.34%
01/10/20060.39%0.22%0.18%0.30%0.38%0.42%0.49%
01/11/20060.20%0.19%0.21%0.29%0.51%0.37%0.53%
01/12/20060.33%0.26%0.26%0.36%0.51%0.33%0.42%
01/01/20070.34%0.33%0.43%0.42%0.31%0.37%0.32%
01/02/20070.27%0.44%0.68%0.68%0.27%0.40%0.29%
01/03/20070.31%0.52%0.51%0.53%0.32%0.50%0.33%
01/04/20070.33%0.54%0.53%0.21%0.36%0.29%0.49%
01/05/20070.33%0.52%0.58%0.27%0.44%0.33%0.41%
01/06/20070.33%0.65%0.61%0.28%0.36%0.24%0.43%
01/07/20070.23%0.45%0.42%0.37%0.48%0.45%0.57%
01/08/20070.20%0.48%0.34%0.28%0.41%0.46%0.59%
01/09/20070.17%0.42%0.35%0.32%0.33%0.43%0.59%
01/10/20070.19%0.44%0.35%0.53%0.41%0.55%0.42%
01/11/20070.16%0.33%0.28%0.53%0.35%0.44%0.38%
01/12/20070.14%0.33%0.26%0.37%0.33%0.41%0.36%
01/01/20080.12%0.29%0.33%0.28%0.25%0.40%0.32%
01/02/20080.10%0.32%0.32%0.25%0.23%0.41%0.31%
01/03/20080.10%0.26%0.29%0.26%0.14%0.19%0.16%
01/04/20080.08%0.20%0.25%0.19%0.20%0.17%0.31%
01/05/20080.09%0.22%0.26%0.18%0.26%0.21%0.30%
01/06/20080.08%0.21%0.21%0.17%0.22%0.18%0.26%
01/07/20080.15%0.28%0.23%0.24%0.23%0.19%0.24%
01/08/20080.10%0.28%0.23%0.22%0.30%0.20%0.35%
01/09/20080.08%0.27%0.23%0.24%0.23%0.18%0.32%
01/10/20080.17%0.27%0.35%0.34%0.29%0.40%0.37%
01/11/20080.19%0.36%0.42%0.40%0.35%0.42%0.46%
01/12/20080.27%0.28%0.33%0.43%0.34%0.49%0.41%
01/01/20090.11%0.38%0.50%0.43%0.36%0.53%0.42%
01/02/20090.15%0.41%0.56%0.52%0.36%0.55%0.38%
01/03/20090.16%0.41%0.54%0.55%0.37%0.43%0.35%
01/04/20090.32%0.50%0.79%0.35%0.44%0.28%0.49%
01/05/20090.19%0.43%0.56%0.31%0.35%0.28%0.42%
01/06/20090.26%0.41%0.53%0.36%0.33%0.31%0.46%
01/07/20090.24%0.56%0.46%0.38%0.36%0.32%0.41%
01/08/20090.27%0.52%0.39%0.31%0.34%0.28%0.28%
01/09/20090.30%0.57%0.53%0.57%0.52%0.47%0.45%
01/10/20090.29%0.39%0.63%0.49%0.45%0.59%0.51%
01/11/20090.18%0.44%0.69%0.55%0.42%0.58%0.54%
01/12/20090.17%0.46%0.56%0.65%0.50%0.66%0.65%
01/01/20100.19%0.47%0.82%0.62%0.47%0.74%0.68%
01/02/20100.15%0.37%0.54%0.46%0.51%0.86%0.77%
01/03/20100.19%0.42%0.53%0.65%0.53%0.72%0.58%
01/04/20100.15%0.45%0.84%0.51%0.66%0.59%0.78%
01/05/20100.23%0.45%0.72%0.50%0.60%0.59%0.80%
01/06/20100.14%0.42%0.50%0.43%0.52%0.47%0.72%
01/07/20100.13%0.41%0.62%0.50%0.63%0.59%0.75%
01/08/20100.13%0.37%0.54%0.47%0.51%0.55%0.63%
01/09/20100.12%0.26%0.31%0.41%0.41%0.46%0.61%
01/10/20100.12%0.24%0.48%0.35%0.39%0.52%0.44%
01/11/20100.13%0.28%0.41%0.37%0.41%0.60%0.60%
01/12/20100.08%0.30%0.35%0.48%0.42%0.64%0.60%
01/01/20110.10%0.31%0.52%0.40%0.37%0.51%0.50%
01/02/20110.12%0.23%0.41%0.36%0.30%0.45%0.47%
01/03/20110.08%0.25%0.28%0.34%0.25%0.43%0.34%
01/04/20110.12%0.19%0.36%0.19%0.30%0.30%0.35%
01/05/20110.10%0.20%0.39%0.27%0.34%0.36%0.55%
01/06/20110.09%0.17%0.27%0.23%0.33%0.26%0.57%
01/07/20110.11%0.18%0.34%0.26%0.28%0.24%0.44%
01/08/20110.11%0.28%0.24%0.22%0.29%0.27%0.49%
01/09/20110.16%0.22%0.24%0.30%0.26%0.24%0.43%
01/10/20110.11%0.20%0.33%0.27%0.25%0.37%0.40%
01/11/20110.11%0.19%0.29%0.26%0.24%0.30%0.44%
01/12/20110.12%0.26%0.29%0.37%0.31%0.43%0.44%
01/01/20120.12%0.23%0.40%0.37%0.33%0.44%0.41%
01/02/20120.10%0.29%0.52%0.51%0.36%0.54%0.51%
01/03/20120.11%0.29%0.38%0.42%0.31%0.42%0.50%
01/04/20120.09%0.24%0.43%0.27%0.32%0.36%0.46%
01/05/20120.11%0.22%0.35%0.29%0.38%0.35%0.45%
01/06/20120.11%0.30%0.33%0.31%0.34%0.31%0.37%
01/07/20120.13%0.21%0.34%0.31%0.37%0.35%0.55%
01/08/20120.12%0.20%0.32%0.31%0.34%0.34%0.42%
01/09/20120.12%0.22%0.29%0.30%0.36%0.42%0.51%
01/10/20120.08%0.16%0.33%0.28%0.30%0.40%0.41%
01/11/20120.09%0.16%0.27%0.31%0.30%0.46%0.43%
01/12/20120.12%0.17%0.24%0.30%0.33%0.47%0.51%
01/01/20130.09%0.18%0.28%0.27%0.24%0.37%0.35%
01/02/20130.09%0.14%0.27%0.26%0.22%0.35%0.36%
01/03/20130.15%0.21%0.32%0.34%0.24%0.35%0.36%
01/04/20130.10%0.17%0.33%0.17%0.26%0.34%0.58%
01/05/20130.09%0.13%0.24%0.14%0.25%0.31%0.62%
01/06/20130.14%0.16%0.21%0.24%0.32%0.27%0.55%
01/07/20130.09%0.11%0.17%0.16%0.21%0.19%0.43%
01/08/20130.09%0.12%0.13%0.12%0.17%0.17%0.32%
01/09/20130.09%0.10%0.14%0.15%0.21%0.15%0.32%
01/10/20130.08%0.09%0.13%0.15%0.17%0.26%0.46%
01/11/20130.09%0.11%0.15%0.16%0.16%0.25%0.34%
01/12/20130.09%0.11%0.14%0.17%0.17%0.24%0.33%
01/01/20140.08%0.12%0.20%0.18%0.18%0.29%0.22%
01/02/20140.11%0.18%0.21%0.21%0.22%0.27%0.28%
01/03/20140.11%0.15%0.18%0.19%0.19%0.30%0.26%
01/04/20140.14%0.23%0.21%0.19%0.34%0.37%0.54%
01/05/20140.12%0.20%0.30%0.17%0.38%0.31%0.43%
01/06/20140.16%0.25%0.29%0.24%0.26%0.35%0.60%
01/07/20140.21%0.36%0.26%0.24%0.29%0.31%0.53%
01/08/20140.19%0.21%0.24%0.23%0.25%0.24%0.26%
01/09/20140.17%0.19%0.20%0.20%0.34%0.28%0.31%
01/10/20140.18%0.17%0.19%0.25%0.33%0.27%0.37%
01/11/20140.17%0.18%0.18%0.25%0.27%0.34%0.36%
01/12/20140.12%0.16%0.17%0.27%0.25%0.25%0.29%
01/01/20150.17%0.26%0.35%0.35%0.31%0.44%0.38%
01/02/20150.13%0.22%0.26%0.28%0.35%0.45%0.39%
01/03/20150.15%0.20%0.23%0.24%0.21%0.36%0.36%
01/04/20150.26%0.22%0.24%0.25%0.31%0.35%0.55%
01/05/20150.13%0.18%0.26%0.20%0.31%0.27%0.48%
01/06/20150.24%0.22%0.24%0.25%0.31%0.33%0.44%
01/07/20150.13%0.20%0.19%0.18%0.20%0.24%0.37%
01/08/20150.11%0.16%0.20%0.18%0.24%0.32%0.36%
01/09/20150.14%0.13%0.15%0.15%0.20%0.23%0.33%
01/10/20150.21%0.12%0.17%0.19%0.17%0.24%0.33%
01/11/20150.19%0.18%0.18%0.22%0.19%0.34%0.49%
01/12/20150.23%0.16%0.20%0.27%0.22%0.43%0.47%
01/01/20160.22%0.23%0.28%0.28%0.27%0.36%0.36%
01/02/20160.20%0.32%0.42%0.42%0.35%0.43%0.51%
01/03/20160.18%0.22%0.32%0.31%0.31%0.45%0.38%
01/04/20160.27%0.27%0.34%0.31%0.40%0.44%0.58%
01/05/20160.14%0.24%0.32%0.31%0.38%0.44%0.54%
01/06/20160.23%0.20%0.29%0.30%0.32%0.45%0.60%
01/07/20160.21%0.16%0.23%0.22%0.32%0.32%0.49%
01/08/20160.24%0.28%0.34%0.32%0.36%0.35%0.50%
01/09/20160.34%0.37%0.42%0.40%0.51%0.61%0.71%
01/10/20160.15%0.22%0.28%0.38%0.36%0.50%0.54%
01/11/20160.18%0.16%0.25%0.35%0.34%0.44%0.45%
01/12/20160.18%0.15%0.21%0.24%0.30%0.57%0.63%
01/01/20170.17%0.24%0.26%0.27%0.27%0.37%0.48%
01/02/20170.13%0.16%0.25%0.26%0.29%0.37%0.43%
01/03/20170.11%0.13%0.21%0.24%0.25%0.37%0.38%
01/04/20170.26%0.14%0.28%0.17%0.28%0.31%0.58%
01/05/20170.20%0.14%0.24%0.17%0.24%0.34%0.52%
01/06/20170.24%0.11%0.19%0.17%0.24%0.24%0.34%
01/07/20170.14%0.11%0.13%0.13%0.15%0.29%0.34%
01/08/20170.15%0.12%0.15%0.14%0.32%0.27%0.49%
01/09/20170.13%0.10%0.13%0.15%0.23%0.31%0.42%
01/10/20170.11%0.18%0.16%0.21%0.25%0.41%0.39%
01/11/20170.07%0.10%0.16%0.22%0.25%0.34%0.33%
01/12/20170.17%0.17%0.23%0.31%0.21%0.45%0.48%
01/01/20180.09%0.19%0.19%0.21%0.17%0.26%0.27%
01/02/20180.10%0.14%0.21%0.22%0.21%0.33%0.27%
01/03/20180.18%0.15%0.21%0.23%0.25%0.36%0.44%
01/04/20180.16%0.15%0.21%0.24%0.32%0.35%0.53%
01/05/20180.17%0.15%0.15%0.15%0.30%0.27%0.56%
01/06/20180.13%0.14%0.16%0.18%0.34%0.30%0.62%
01/07/20180.13%0.13%0.16%0.14%0.23%0.32%0.46%
01/08/20180.10%0.12%0.14%0.13%0.18%0.24%0.55%
01/09/20180.19%0.13%0.19%0.19%0.25%0.27%0.56%
01/10/20180.14%0.14%0.27%0.31%0.30%0.36%0.34%
01/11/20180.09%0.18%0.29%0.21%0.24%0.40%0.60%
01/12/20180.24%0.23%0.27%0.32%0.32%0.48%0.56%
01/01/20190.08%0.16%0.27%0.26%0.26%0.41%0.48%
01/02/20190.11%0.15%0.30%0.28%0.24%0.41%0.44%
01/03/20190.17%0.15%0.20%0.23%0.17%0.36%0.27%

More information

Gas bid offer spreads: At-a-glance summary

Bid-offer spreads in the GB gas market are low by international standards, indicating that it is relatively easy to trade in the GB gas market.

Bid-offer spreads across a range of different contracts have tightened since 2010.

Relevance and further information

The bid-offer spread is one indicator of market liquidity. It is the difference between the best bid to buy and the best offer to sell. Tighter spreads suggest a more liquid market and robust pricing.

Liquidity is an important feature of mature markets, often reflecting a large number of buyers and sellers. Liquid markets also facilitate new entry by making it easier to buy and sell gas at a fair price. For example, in a liquid market a new supplier can more easily enter the market and buy the gas they need to cover their consumers’ demand whilst also having confidence in the price they are paying for that gas. 

Methodology

The bid-offer spread is calculated by subtracting the bid price from the offer price and then dividing by the offer price. It is them multiplied by 100 to give a percentage. 

Spreads are based on over-the-counter trading and are assessed by using ICIS’s price assessment.

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Chart

Javascript is required to render chart Gas long-term contract import volumes (GB).

Source: Ofgem information request to GB gas shippers.

Information correct as of: January 2019

This chart shows the annual amount of gas contracted for by GB gas shippers through long-term import contracts. This is further broken down by if the contract is ‘firm’ or ‘interruptible’.

The data only covers imports, so does not capture all long-term gas contracts. It is intended as a snapshot of trends, and does not include contracts agreed after 1 October 2017.

Policy Areas:

  • Gas - wholesale markets

Data Table

Gas long-term contract import volumes (GB)
YearFirmInterruptible
201823.2908.647
201924.07524.523
202024.13624.100
202121.71624.405
202215.83526.047
202315.78624.848
202415.16724.694
20257.50024.178
20260.00022.581
20270.00023.261
20280.00023.043
20290.00021.766
20300.00022.064
20310.00021.516
20320.00020.162
20330.00015.140
20340.0005.027
20350.0000.000
20360.0000.000
20370.0000.000
20380.0000.000
20390.0000.000

More information

Gas imports (long-term contracts): At-a-glance summary

The annual import volume covered by long-term contracts is currently over 30bcm. This equates to almost half of total GB demand. This does not mean all gas will arrive at GB. Delivery is often dependent on the situation elsewhere in the global gas market.

Relevance and further information

A long-term contract is when a seller and a buyer agree to exchange an amount of gas for a number of years in the future. They are distinct from spot or forward contracts which are agreed through trading on an exchange or bilateral trading platform.

Shippers will typically buy gas through a mix of long-term contracts and shorter-term forward and spot trading. Long-term contracts give greater certainty to buyers and sellers that they will have secure supplies for future years.

Generally, in GB, contracts are linked to the GB gas market price, whereas in Europe they have historically been linked to the oil price. 

The amount of gas contracted for in long-term contracts gives some certainty about current and future security of supply. 

Methodology

The chart shows how some long-term import contracts are firm and some are interruptible. 

A firm contract generally means that those supplying the gas must supply the firm volume, and those buying the gas must take that volume. 

Interruptible contracts contain various clauses that mean the contracted volumes may not have to be supplied. For example, all Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) contracts in GB are currently interruptible, with delivery usually dependent on the global LNG market. If increased security of supply risks in GB caused our prices to rise relative to the global market, then these contracts indicate that LNG deliveries to GB should increase.

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