- Publication date
- 17th July 2015
- Information type
- Policy area
This document is Ofgem’s commentary on the first three winters of National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios for electricity security of supply. Our assessment is based on data from National Grid accompanied by our own analysis.
For winter 2015/16, National Grid has procured additional balancing services that it can use to help it balance the system if margins tighten. These services will effectively ensure that the risks to the electricity security of supply reduce to meet the government's reliability standard.
Uncertainty around the outlook for winter 2016/17 has increased. Margins could tighten if further power stations close or mothball. However, we have identified a significant potential for the market to respond positively and reduce the risks to security of supply. The outlook is then expected to improve in the final winter of our analysis due to plant returning to the market.