Electricity Capacity Assessment 2014: decision on methodology
Decision
Publication date
Industry sector
Generation and Wholesale Market
Related consultation
In November 2013 we published a consultation to seek views on the general approach for assessing the risks to electricity security of supply for the 2014 Electricity Capacity Assessment report.
The consultation closed on 9 January 2014. We received eleven responses, four from industry participants and seven from academic institutions and others.
In our consultation we proposed maintaining the general approach used for the 2013 report for this year’s report. Our view has been broadly supported by the consultation responses. This means we will continue to use the model designed by Ofgem and National Grid and used for the 2013 report. However, all input assumptions will be updated to reflect current market developments.
We also sought views from stakeholders on how the report represents the uncertainty in the Capacity Assessment. All respondents agreed with our approach to using sensitivities to represent the main uncertainties, and will retain this for the 2014 report. In addition, we are minded to make use of all four of the National Grid Future Energy Scenarios in the 2014 report.
Respondents also included some additional comments and recommendations that were not particularly related to the specific questions asked in the consultation. This included clarification of the definition of the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) and a number of technical questions for specific assumptions or approaches.
Overall, respondents broadly agreed that the methodology remains sound and fit for purpose for the period of analysis.